I was shocked when I first heard the Academy was extending the Best Picture category to 10 nominees. Accurate predictions? Sorry, all bets are off. Like global warming and “American Idol” auditions, I don’t think anyone knows for sure what’s going to happen.

Actress in a Supporting Role: Penelope Cruz, Vera Farmiga, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Anna Kendrick, Mo’Nique

Notes: Mo’Nique took home the Golden Globe (for “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”), and I think she’ll do so again here for her raw, gutsy performance. I do like both Farmiga and Kendrick in “Up in the Air,” and that film might be recognized in this category. Frankly, there are no unworthy nominees.

This critic’s pick: Mo’Nique

Probable winner : Mo’Nique

Overlooked: Paula Patton and Mariah Carey (yeah, that Mariah Carey) gave superb performances in “Precious.”

Actor in a Supporting Role: Matt Damon, Woody Harrelson, Christopher Plummer, Stanley Tucci, Christoph Waltz

Notes: A really tough field this year. Plummer was excellent as an ailing Tolstoy in “The Last Station,” and I liked Tucci as a seriously warped killer in “The Lovely Bones.” However, for my money, Waltz was brilliantly psychotic as a Nazi colonel in “Inglourious Basterds.”

This critic’s pick: Christoph Waltz

Probable winner : Christoph Waltz

Overlooked: Zach Galifianakis (“The Hangover”), John Krasinski as the scene-stealing son-in-law in “It’s Complicated”

Actress in a Leading Role: Sandra Bullock, Helen Mirren, Carey Mulligan, Gabourney Sidibe, Meryl Streep

Notes: I vote for a five-way tie. However, barring that option, I suspect older Academy voters are looking for a Julia Roberts replacement as America’s new darling. Bullock is worthy of the title, especially in “The Blind Side.” I also loved Mulligan as a naive London schoolgirl circa 1960 in “An Education.”

However, newcomer Sidibe gave a jaw-dropping performance as an abused teenager in “Precious.” She is outstanding.

This critic’s pick: Gabourney Sidibe

Probable winner : Sandra Bullock

Overlooked: Zoe Saldana (in “Avatar”) because behind this newfangled motion capture technology, there really is somebody playing a 10-foot-tall blue Na’vi princess

Actor in a Leading Role: Jeff Bridges, George Clooney, Colin Firth, Morgan Freeman, Jeremy Renner

Notes: With apologies to everyone in this field (and Freeman was terrific in “Invictus,”) my decision was inevitable two minutes into “Crazy Heart.”

This critic’s pick: Jeff Bridges

Probable winner : Jeff Bridges

Overlooked: I really liked Jason Segal’s performance in “I Love You, Man.”

Best Director: James Cameron. Kathryn Bigelow, Quentin Tarantino, Lee Daniels, Jason Reitman

Notes: Anyone who’s read my “Avatar” review knows how I feel. However, in the name of PC and fair play, if Kathryn Bigelow wins, I won’t be disappointed. “The Hurt Locker” was exceptional, and I think it may be recognized in this category.

This critic’s pick: James Cameron

Probable winner : Kathryn Bigelow

Best Pic ture: “Avatar,” “The Blind Side,” “District 9,” “An Education,” “The Hurt Locker,” “Inglourious Basterds,” “Precious,” “A Serious Man,” “Up,” “Up in the Air”

Notes: My favorites in this category are “Precious” and “Avatar.” And thus it’s time for the inevitable philosophic ramble. Hollywood does a remarkable job at two things: (1) mirroring and sometimes shaking up our social consciousness and (2) dramatically blowing things up.

“Precious” is a powerful, eye-opening peek at hell on earth, an intense, mesmerizing drama that should be seen. It is social consciousness on steroids.

If “Avatar” had simply been a marvelously rendered “blowing things up” film, I might have decided differently, but James Cameron’s sci-fi epic is not only a stunning visual masterpiece, it’s a socially aware, cultural admonishment as well. In addition to being visually enthralled by “Avatar,” 10-year-olds might grow up realizing we shouldn’t just take things that don’t belong to us. Maybe one of them will be president one day.

Besides, Hollywood’s entire purpose for plumping up the Best Picture category this year was to improve the chances of a studio film (not an indie dark horse) taking home the gold. I suspected Hollywood knew what it was doing, and the $2.5billion grossing (worldwide) “Avatar” is as close to mainstream manna as they’ve seen since, well, “Titanic.”

This critic’s pick: “ Avatar”

Probable win ner : “ Avatar”

Overlooked: “(500) Days of Summer” was one of the best romantic fables of the decade.

Epilogue: Here’s my suggestion for Oscar’s future. Instead of simply bumping up the Best Picture category, let’s take a page from the Golden Globes (oh, c’mon, you know we still like you better) and nominate the five best comedic films and the five best dramatic films and, while we’re at it, the five best ensemble films (because actors need hugs, too).

Oh, yeah, and another crucial category: Best Film Critic. I think the little guy would look great on my mantel.