Hollywood's lightened up a bit this year, and Oscar offers up an astute, grab-bag selection of mostly characterdriven, occasionally ambivalent films—a true potpourri of possibilities.

I believe Academy voting, divided by empathies, politics and inside-track gamesmanship, may lead to some surprising winners this year. My bookie's nervous.

One guilty secret: The tabloid junkie inside me desperately wants Brad and Angelina to win in their respective categories (Best Actor, Best Actress), if only to add shiny new bookends in the kids' room. Wouldn't that be fun?

But I really don't have a clue this year which way Oscar's wind will blow, although I am reasonably certain of the Best Picture winner. It's certainly the best picture I've seen this year.

Best Supporting Actress

Tough choice. This one's a fourway race. (My least favorite: Penelope Cruz in Woody Allen's rambling "Vicky Cristina Barcelona." No offense to Ms. Cruz's talents—simply a role out of place in a surprisingly droll flick.) Amy Adams, Viola Davis, Taraji P. Henson and Marisa Tomei are all worthy of the little gold guy.

However, since Vegas is waiting, I think Viola Davis will win for "Doubt" because a good many Hollywood intellectuals are unhappy that the flick wasn't nominated for Best Picture. Me? I believe Taraji P. Henson outperformed Mr. Pitt in Mr. Button. No easy feat, and worth the statue.

This Critic's Pick: Taraji P. Henson ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button")

Probable Winner: Viola Davis ("Doubt")

Best Supporting Actor

The only category this year predestined by fate. Heath Ledger's accidental death last year created an enormous groundswell of support and sympathy. "The Dark Knight" was the year's highest-grossing runaway hit ($530 million and counting) and some would even say the best of the franchise. However, the film is otherwise absent from Oscar's attention. Still, Ledger's win would be emotionally gratifying.

The truth is, Josh Brolin's performance in "Milk" is far more subdued than in last year's "No Country for Old Men," for which he was snubbed—but I suspect Brolin's time will come. I also think Robert Downey Jr.'s nomination is more a "welcome back, glad you could make it" from his peers. Both Michael Shannon and Oscar-winner Philip Seymour Hoffman probably lack the momentum to win, even if Ledger didn't have this year's lock.

This Critic's Pick: Heath Ledger ("The Dark Knight.")

Probable Winner: Heath Ledger ("The Dark Knight.")

Best Actress

Another tough pick. I really don't know. Maybe Meryl Streep, if only because Meryl Streep always wins, although many feel "Doubt" is much better theatrical fare than cinematic—and Ms. Streep's performance here was, um, quite theatrical.

I liked Angelina Jolie in "Changeling." And I wouldn't mind seeing Kate Winslet win— although I did have trouble with the plot disintegration of "The Reader." However, for a surprisingly genuine, heartfelt performance in "Rachel Getting Married," Anne Hathaway gets my vote.

This Critic's Pick: Anne Hathaway ("Rachel Getting Married")

Probable Winner: Kate Winslet ("The Reader")

Best Actor

A pity that "The Visitor" went under the radar, because I think Richard Jenkins' performance as a lonely professor who unwittingly harbors illegal immigrants was superb. If Jenkins pulls a surprise dark horse win—good for him!

Also decent: Mickey Rourke's parody (and I mean this in a good way) of himself in "The Wrestler" and Frank Langella channeling the angst of Nixon. And while I loved watching Brad Pitt aging backwards, I'm not sure if all the special effects didn't get in the way. Still, for all the right reasons, I think it's going to be Sean Penn, in the best performance (thus far) of his career.

This Critic's Pick: Sean Penn ("Milk")

Probable Winner: Sean Penn ("Milk")

Best Director

This category always seemed like an echo category to me. Best picture? Well, duh! Best director. Which isn't always the case and often a bittersweet (remember 1998?) King Solomonesque way to hedge bets and honor two great films at once. I suspect this will be one of those years, with Ron Howard taking the honors (call it a mini-lifetime achievement pick) for "Frost/Nixon."

I do think David Fincher did a remarkable job with "Benjamin Button," as did Danny Boyle with "Slumdog Millionaire." Just getting that movie seen was a remarkable feat. Gus Van Zant may have a shot, depending upon just how much of Hollywood the liberal left has already conquered. But if Opie wins, it's okay by me.

This Critic's Pick: Danny Boyle ("Slumdog Millionaire")

Probable Winner: Ron Howard ("Frost/Nixon")

Best Picture

Despite all the notorious pandering by "The Reader" crowd (Harvey Weinstein and company) and the "Milk" crowd (in retaliation—really—for Prop. 8), the best picture of the year, hands down, is "Slumdog Millionaire."

If we leave politics and sentimentality (guiding forces Anthony Minghella and Sidney Pollack died before "The Reader" was completed) out of the final verdict, a Best Picture really should be about the two or so hours (that we pay for) up there on the silver screen. I think, down deep, Academy voters still understand that.

This Critic's Pick: "Slumdog Millionaire"

Probable Winner: "Slumdog Millionaire"

Tidbits Because I know these things, expect "WALL-E" to win best animated picture (of course), and the superb "Man on Wire" to win Best Documentary. "Waltz With Bashir" will win Best Foreign Language Film.