State of California to test its readiness for a major earthquake

According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), a scientific research center on natural disasters, there is a 46 percent chance that a magnitude 7.2 quake or larger will strike Southern California in the next 30 years.

In a May report called "The ShakeOut Scenario," scientists have predicted the aftermath of a magnitude 7.8 earthquake like the one that recently hit China: The area would be faced with 1,800 dead, 50,000 injured and $200 billion in damages.

With these statistics in mind, the state is doing what it can to ensure that the public and emergency responders are ready if the "big one" strikes.

A state-sponsored weeklong series of public events is planned for November. Called "Great Southern California ShakeOut," it addresses the hypothetical scenario of how a magnitude 7.8 earthquake would impact the region and its resources.

The week's events will feature an emergency-preparedness drill dubbed "Golden Guardian '08."

Jointly coordinated by the USGS, the Governor's Office of Emergency Services and the California Office of Homeland Security, the drill aims to see how emergency responders react to the loss of power, communication lines and transportation routes that would accompany a quake of magnitude 7.8.

"The planned emergency drill is underpinned by the most comprehensive analysis ever of what a major Southern California earthquake would mean on the ground," said Dr. Lucile Jones, chief scientist for U.S. Geological Survey's Southern California Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project. "We know this science will help state and local agencies develop comprehensive emergency-response plans that will help us avoid the worst impacts of a major quake."

Although imaginary, "The ShakeOut Scenario" is based on scientists' best predictions of what would actually occur during and after a major earthquake on the San Andreas Fault, according to Dale Cox, U.S. Geological Survey's project manager for the scenario.

A consortium of the best seismologists and physicists were gathered to create the simulated disaster, he said.

Local cities and counties will take part in the scenario, which is the largest earthquake preparedness drill in California history.

"Ventura County is ready, but none of this means anything if residents are not prepared to take care of themselves," said Peter Foy, chair of the County Board of Supervisors and head of the county disaster council.

The Ventura County Fire Department is developing a plan to take part in the Golden Guardian drill, said Capt. Barry Parker.

"It's the biggest drill ever put together, so it takes months of planning," he said.

The drill will test the abilities of all responders and provide valuable information about the effects of a big tremor, he said.

"If a big earthquake occurs during the day, about 80,000 people who commute to Ventura County will be stuck here," Parker said. "So that's a lot of people who may need to be housed for a week or two."

Many local residents will also be stranded elsewhere and unable to come home.

Officials also learned that the 126 Highway corridor will be severely affected because of several fault lines in that area, Parker said.

However, Ventura County will be in better shape than counties to the south, including San Bernardino and Riverside, because the San Andreas Fault doesn't cross the populated region and backup personnel from the north will be able to reach the area and provide extra support.

In Moorpark, city emergency responders will take part in a virtual exercise that can be performed on a tabletop. Messages will come in, and city emergency personnel will respond to information using a board that illustrates where resources are assigned as if it's happening in real time.

"The upcoming earthquake preparedness and response simulation is extremely detailed and wellresearched and will help local cities and the county to discover how such an event would affect emergency response right here," said John Brand, senior analyst for Moorpark.

"But we don't actually deploy staff and resources in the real world," he said.

As part of the plan, residents will be invited to register numbers for their cellphone or Internetprovided digital phone service into a reverse 911 system database that will be announced to the public later this month. The reverse 911 system will automatically call people to keep them informed in an emergency.

The county is also working to create an AM/FM broadcasting network to enable first responders, schools and municipalities to reach everyone with the same information.

"Our goal is to make sure that everybody knows what's going on in case of a disaster and to encourage people to be prepared like the county is," Foy said.

"This (USGS) report is a serious reminder that it is important to be ready for earthquakes or other natural disasters," said Jonathan Fielding, director of public health and health officer for L.A. County.

Having a family communication plan and an emergency kit can provide the necessary resources to help families get through a difficult situation, he said.