Decline of enrollment is expected to continue

After losing 900 students in the last four years, the Conejo Valley Unified School District may lose an additional 1,000 in the next five years, according to updated enrollment projections.

Jeff Baarstad, deputy superintendent, shared those projections at last week's CVUSD board meeting.

Of the 1,132 babies born within CVUSD boundaries between 1987 and 1993, about 94 percent came into the district. The district can track what children should attend CVUSD by the ZIP codes parents list on their babies' birth certificates.

Between 1993 and 2004, nearly 114 percent of the children born in the district- 1,395- came to CVUSD for kindergarten. That means that in addition to most of the children born in the area attending, young families were moving into the district.

"Kindergartens in those years had 114 percent of live births, which is biologically impossible, but three new subdivisions were built during that time," said Baarstad, who referenced Rancho Conejo, Lang Ranch and Dos Vientos. "There were more families moving in. Now there are less and less people moving into the community."

Of the 1,426 births that have occurred in the last four years, 97 percent came to CVUSD, and now numbers are showing that of the 1,452 births projected to occur in Conejo Valley in the next four years, only 95 percent will come into the district.

"We've already lost 900 elementary school kids in the last four years," Baarstad said. "The projection shows we are going to lose another thousand in the next five. But we don't think it's going to be that bad. . . . But I'd be surprised if we didn't decline 1,200 or 1,500 overall."

In the 2007-08 school year, 9,121 students comprised CVUSD kindergarten through fifth grades. This coming year, that number will be 8,990, down 131 students. Sixth- through eighth-graders will decrease from 5,201 to 5,072 (down 129) and seventh- through 12th-graders will drop from 7,703 to 7,578 (down 125).

Baarstad said he's confident in the accuracy of the numbers.

"The principals in this district are very, very good at projecting one-year enrollment," he said.

This year, CVUSD only had one elementary school with fewer than 300 kids enrolled. Projections show that in 2012, there will be five.

Board member Tim Stephens urged the marketing of the district to reverse the decline.

"I think we can definitely improve our numbers that way, but we are never going to get close to (reversing it)," Baarstad said. "There are not 2,000 kids hanging around the Conejo Valley in private schools or (elsewhere)." Stephens also offered up the bad economy as a possible plus to declining enrollment.

"Maybe parents will reconsider sending their kids to private school because of the way the economy is and the cost of tuition," Stephens said. "And maybe 250 or so kids' parents will think twice about driving to a private school with gas prices the way they are. Those are two double whammies that may benefit us."

But Baarstad all but shut out those ideas, pointing out that the smaller private schools could adjust tuition. And, he said, people who are sending their kids to larger, expensive private schools- Oaks Christian, for example, which costs more than $21,000 a year- are probably not too affected by the current economy.

The board also discussed Oxnard Unified students who would like to participate in the International Baccalaureate program and Oak Park and East Valley students who want to play for athletic teams in CVUSD.

Board members agreed that the district's first priority should be attracting back the students who've left for other districts, home schooling or private schools.

"We need to find out why they are going," said board member Dolores Didio. "We need some type of committee to get some understanding on why they are doing this."

The junior kindergarten program, which is starting this upcoming school year, is one possible saving grace. Sixty kids have already signed up, and at $6,000 each coming in, the district is on its way to receiving $360,000 off the pilot program.

In the report to the board, submitted by Superintendent Mario Contini and prepared by Baarstad, it was clear that longterm projections aren't nearly as accurate as projections for one to two years out.