Declining enrollment a challenge for all public schools
By Joann Groff joann@theacorn.com

A hot topic in the Conejo Valley Unified School District and throughout other parts of the state has been the threat of declining enrollment. And for the first time, the numbers show that a significant drop is coming.

At a school board meeting earlier this month, Jeff Baarstad, assistant superintendent of business services, shared predictions for the district’s future.

“For the first time in many years, they are predicting a pretty steep (drop) over the next five years,” Baarstad said.

Studies reveal the district could see a drop of 1,200 students, or about 1 percent, over that period.

“That’s a big difference from the growth we’ve seen over the last 10 years,” Baarstad said. “Since 1990, we’ve averaged 1 to 2 percent growth.”

The numbers depend on housing development. But questions linger, Baarstad said, as to whether homes will ultimately be built, who will move there and whether the families will produce children.

The district is already down 150 kindergartners from last year, and with housing prices going up, fewer families are moving to the Conejo Valley.

Elementary enrollment is expected to decline by about 900 students over the next five years. Baarstad attributed the drop to the baby boomer generation having for the most part completed their families.

Middle school projections show growth through 2007, followed by a 330-student decline from the 200708 through 201011 school years.

Similarily, high schools are projected to grow through 2008 and experience a 310student decline from the 200809 to 201011 school years. The average size of the high schools in 2010 is estimated at 2,345.

Baarstad did point out the silver lining: since the district is built out, numbers can’t get too much larger. He said that the 2010 projections would be “remarkably balanced if the numbers hold. Those are very nice-sized middle and high schools.”

Board member Mike Dunn also saw some good in the enrollment projections.

“I do see some good news,” Dunn said. “Dos Vientos parents have been concerned that their kids wouldn’t be able to attend Sycamore Canyon schools (because of overcrowding). Is it safe to assume that they’d be able to?”

Baarstad said if the projections were correct, that would be a safe assumption.

However, the decline could have what Baarstad calls “significant fiscal implications.”

With a current revenue limit at $5,528 per student, the income loss of a 100-student decline would be $552,8000, or $312,800 after reductions in teacher and staff numbers were made. The income loss for 1,100 students is more than $6 million, or $3.4 million with cuts factored in.

Superintendent Mario Contini said the district will be looking at the impact these changes will have on Conejo Valley schools.

“This district has been paying attention to declining enrollment for some time,” Contini said. “One thing that’s going to happen is that we are going to be paying attention to the facilities side of this and the business side.

“We will be looking at closing elementary schools, one or more. That’s one option.”

Board member Tim Stephens complimented staff on their diligence on the issue, saying it contradicted campaign literature that said the district had “failed to tackle the issue of declining enrollment, setting the stage for financial disaster.”