Conejo school district predicts its first decline in two decades
By Kyle Jorrey kjorrey@theacorn.com

If estimates from district officials hold true, enrollment in Conejo Valley Unified School District will fall for the first time in about 20 years this August, when the number of students is expected to drop from 22,587 to 22,377.

And that decline may provide a glimpse into what the future holds.

According to Assistant Superintendent Jeffrey Barstaad, the district is projecting at least 10 years of stable or falling enrollment in CVUSD, a trend that's being played out across the state and the county.

"We may see our enrollment declining for many, many years in the future," Barstaad said.

This year's projected drop of 210 students will result in the loss of about $1.2 million in state funding, which is based each fiscal year on student enrollment in a district. In the Conejo Valley, about $6,000 per student is received from the state.

Although there's no way of knowing for sure whether or not enrollment will continue to fall, new Superintendent Mario Contini said it's a serious issue that people need be aware of.

"Declining enrollment is a very, very difficult thing for a district to deal with," Contini said. "It's going to be critical that there be proactive steps taken."

When a district loses students, Contini explained, those losses are usually spread out over many grade levels, making it difficult to address the loss in revenue simply by reducing the number of classrooms.

"What ends up happening during declining enrollment is you have a rapid decline in revenue and a minimal decline in expenses," the superintendent said. "And that puts stress on the budget."

When this occurs, the district is put in the unenviable position of either increasing revenue or reducing expenditures, sometimes by eliminating services.

"That becomes the dilemma," Contini said. "We just have to be constantly adjusting to make sure the budget balances."

In 2006-07, the district expects to have 500 fewer students in kindergarten through fifth grades and 300 more students in sixth through 12th grades, resulting in a net loss of around 200. The size of next year's kindergarten class is the smallest in recent history, evidence that fewer young families are moving into the Conejo Valley.

Barstaad suggested that rising housing prices and interest rates might have something to do with that.

"Four years ago our (student population) was going up by 3 percent-that's when they were filling homes at Dos Vientos Ranch," he said. "But when people were coming and purchasing those homes four or five years ago, they still cost between $300,000 and $400,000, and there was a great interest rate. Now those homes cost closer to $800,000 or $1 million and we've got higher interest rates."

Contini agreed that those factors are having an effect on the number of school-age children in the state.

"There are some dynamics in California where a lot of the people moving into new homes are established families rather than brandnew ones with children. That is one of the factors taking place," he said.

Looking at population trends, Barstaad said, every suburban district in Ventura County is getting smaller, and the Conejo Valley is no different.

"What people think but they can't prove is that they're not building large developments in Ventura County anymore. The only exception is in Oxnard," the assistant superintendent said. "There are no large subdivisions going on in Conejo."

The immediate effects of reduced enrollment can be seen in the district's decision to eliminate 20 positions at the elementary school level for next year. According to Barstaad, those positions will be covered by retirements and resignations and there will be no layoffs. On the other hand, the CVUSD is creating six new teaching positions at the secondary grade level.

Because falling enrollment is such a new phenomenon in the district, the challenge to adjust may even be greater, Contini said.

"The district has prepared itself to deal with it at this point in time, but it will present new challenges as it continues," he said. Declining enrollment "creates a lot of stress on the budget, and any time you create stress on a budget . . . you have to make hard decisions somewhere down the line."