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Future Foundation ponders life in 2016
According to the group's mission statement, the Conejo/Las Virgenes Future Foundation serves "as a catalyst and a facilitator" for developing models of future living and for addressing quality-oflife issues. The foundation began in 1972. This year's discussion took place May 20 at the Thousand Oaks Civics Art Plaza and discussed topics such as architecture, communications, health and wellness and education. While some panel members had an optimistic outlook for the future, others were bleaker about the years to come. As the world's population approaches the 6.5 billion mark and Earth grows ever more crowded, urban design and architecture will be of utmost importance as decisions are made about the world's limited space. "In the future, we are going to need more intelligent, dense and diverse communities," said Jeffrey Daniels, principal of Jeffrey Daniels Architecture in Los Angeles and director of the Architecture and Interior Design Program at UCLA Extension. "Our lives are about relationships with each other and not necessarily with technology," Daniels said. "Even though technology is changing at a rapid pace, our needs remain the same." Daniels feels that in 10 years, architecture will focus on relationships, respect, authenticity and sense of wonder. Cities will need to develop designs that foster harmonious relationships among cultural groups and with nature. This includes adding more public parks in urban centers and developing measures to counter urban migrations such as the white flight seen in the 1960s. By 2016, Daniels believes that architects will begin to develop ways to get more out of less. "Living and working in the same place is becoming more appealing to people," Daniels said. Daniels often incorporates artist's lofts into his designs to give his projects a sense of openness in small spaces. For Daniels, the suburban model presents an archaic, dying ideal. "People come (to the suburbs) to escape density, but a lot of studies have shown that these areas don't provide the necessary amenities," Daniels said. "People want good schools and safety, but the family life in these areas isn't always what they expected and the kids have nothing to do." Cutting the power cord Thanks to the present communications revolution, one thing that will probably be missing from most houses in the future is copper wiring. "We're a wireless society; the capacity exists and there is still a lot more to come," said Paul Finkel, an electrical engineer who designs wireless products for Fortune 500 companies and entrepreneurs. The evolution of wireless communication has largely been driven by economics and human behavior. As modern nomads-people spend hours every day in their cars-the demand for constant, immediate information had to go wireless, according to Finkel. People want to be able to call home or check sports scores no matter what they're doing or where they are. "Power cords are obsolete," he said. Cost is also a major factor for the transition to a wireless format. Wires cost more and take more time to install. Communication devices in the future will probably include organic antennas such as the phone's case acting as an antenna, batteries that last for months or years without being recharged, and increased data transfer speeds. "Communications will be faster, cover greater distances and last longer in the future," Finkel said. "These advancements will allow us to wear, not carry, our communication devices." Finkel predicts that the next generation of communicators will be built into watches or small pieces of jewelry, and will be equipped with all the extras and more that are now found in PDAs. These developments may seem wondrous, but they do come with a risk. "In the future, we'll probably be entertaining ourselves to death," Finkel said. Model for medicine While other fields are hoping to be revolutionized by technological advances, John Horton believes the future of medicine doesn't rest on some cure-all drug, but rather on the perfection of local administration and the acceptance of non-western medical practices. "Whatever happens nationally or internationally, medicine will always be applied and practiced locally," said Horton, a physician with a practice in Westlake Village. Horton stresses that in addition to clinical knowledge, a doctor must also have compassion and kindness to offer his patients. He worries that advancements in medical technology will lead to the death of the physical diagnosis. His ideal model for future medicine is a three-tiered system that incorporates modern medicine to treat life-threatening illnesses, integrative medicine to treat chronic illnesses, and "self-help" medicine to provide a feeling of wellbeing. "Insurance companies constantly dictate how doctors should dole out medicines and pharmaceuticals spend exorbitant amounts advertising drugs, but pills aren't a cure-all for people," Horton said. Horton is an ardent proponent of preventive medicine, which emphasizes proper diet, exercise, healthy environment and stress reduction. "The American Cancer Society feels that 90 percent of cancers are preventable; genetics is not the sole factor," Horton said. "We have an ability to understand how to prevent illness, and this will be the pedigree for the future of medicine." Stress is the No. 1 cause of premature death and disability, according to Horton. "Being stressed for too long will cause people to become exhausted and die (prematurely)," Horton said. "People need to develop healthy, stress relieving methods that lead to self-actualization, or inner peace." Bastions of antiquity With over half of Los Angeles Unified School District students dropping out, it should be no surprise that the field with the most pessimistic outlook for the future is education. "Higher institutions are the last bastions of antiquity. We need to totally revise our educational model and place more stress on critical thinking skills," said Terance Cannings, PhD, dean of the School of Education at California Lutheran University. With globalization transforming markets, education is one of the most important factors in determining the future success of the nation. "A lot of people have heard about 9/11, but few realize the importance of 11/9. On Nov. 9, 1989, the Soviet Union dissolved and 3.5 billion people entered the world market," said Jason Busby, a social science teacher at Agoura High School. "In India, China and Russia, even if you disregard 90 percent of the population as uneducated, you still have 300 million educated people, a number larger than the U.S. workforce." There are presently 24,000 American students learning Chinese, and about 200 million Chinese students learning English. In the 2006 Intel International Science and Engineering Fair, an annual competition for students, there were 50,000 entrees from American students and more than 6 million from Chinese students. Frustrated with school According to Cannings, students are interested in learning, but often become frustrated with school because the U.S. educational system is based on an outdated model. A large bureaucracy, the use of an agrarian calendar and an industrial age delivery system are all hindering the ability to construct an effective educational model. "The millennials are hypercommunicators and expert multitaskers," Cannings said. "We know their minds don't become active until 10:30 a.m. and that they want to learn using technology, so now we need to start asking, 'How do we reorganize schools for this new generation?'" If students continue to lose interest in school and drop out without developing needed skills, their future, and the economic future of the country will be in serious jeopardy. "People felt that they could always go get a job at McDonald's if they dropped out, but that won't be true for much longer," Busby said. Outsourcing work is also becoming more and more prevalent throughout the U.S. economy. MRIs and CAT scans are sent to doctors in India for analysis, U.S. tax returns are being completed by Indian accountants and the United Kingdom sends high school exit exams to India for grading. Both Cannings and Busby feel the new educational model must stress skills over knowledge. "Knowledge will be available for everyone. Skills will be much more important in the future," Busby said. The United States also needs a revitalization of the sciences within its classrooms, both speakers said. In the United States, just 5 percent of degrees awarded last year were for science and engineering, compared to 60 percent in China. In the U.S., 43 percent of physical science degrees awarded last year went to foreign students studying here. For more information about the Future Foundation, visit www.clvff.org. |
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