By Sophia Fischer sfischer@theacorn.com

A recent UCLA poll and a U. S. census study regarding California, its economy and future growth have local officials offering conflicting viewpoints.

UCLA Poll

The poll, sponsored by the UCLA Ralph and Goldy Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies, determined that more than half of Southern California residents believe the region is suffering through bad economic times and that elected officials aren’t doing enough to strengthen the economy.

Some believe the poll is wrong, others believe it’s accurate.

The UCLA study sampled 1,544 residents of Los Angeles, Ventura, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties. The findings indicated that there was more pessimism among minorities and lower-income residents.

Brian Gabler, Simi Valley assistant city manager, questioned the accuracy of the sampling, pointing to a number of projects his city is implementing to further local business.

"I feel the cities are very involved in creating economic opportunity, working with businesses to ensure economic success and prosperity," Gabler said. "There are a lot of services out there and the governments in the county of Ventura work closely with businesses to ensure business success."

Simi Valley has a "Shop Simi Valley First" campaign to encourage residents to shop locally; a small business advisory committee implements projects to benefit the business community; and the city is working with the local chamber of commerce to come up with ways to support the economy.

But Charles Maxey, dean of California Lutheran University’s School of Business, agrees with the poll. He pointed to decreasing consumer confidence not just in Southern California but nationwide.

"People are very nervous," Maxey said. "If you look at the situation the state of California is in, we’re just in gridlock between the legislature and the governor. We can’t agree what to do."

"We haven’t fixed our budget problems and we still owe all that money," Maxey said. "It’s very serious. We are way behind the curve."

Compounding the problem is the fact that businesses often expand elsewhere or move their entire operations out of state, and that translates to a loss of jobs. Maxey blames a bad regulatory climate for businesses as well as the high cost of housing, which affects the ability of companies to attract employees.

"The economic development and growth of the local economy can’t sustain itself as housing prices go up," Maxey said.

Housing is a critical issue in the region, agreed Gary Wartik, Thousand Oaks Economic Development manager. As current employees who already have homes in the area retire or leave, companies will not be able to attract replacements because of the cost of housing.

"We won’t feel the worst effects of this for five years," Wartik said. "We are already seeing people driving further distances to work here."

A majority of the 70,000 jobs in Thousand Oaks are from small businesses, and the city is doing what it can to help small businesses grow. The Economic Development Collaborative of Ventura County offers a number of programs designed to support the county’s 23,000 small businesses, including financial assistance, professional consulting, and educational programs.

"We want to maintain as full an employment base as possible. When people have jobs, they spend their money in the community," Wartik said.

Jan Smith, governmental relations manager for the Thousand Oaks-Westlake Village Regional Chamber of Commerce, highlighted recent successes including low unemployment figures for both L.A. and Ventura counties; an increase in movie filming in the two counties, which is good for the economy; expected stabilizing of housing prices; and a bigger tourism push by the state. Yet she worries that California may be heading toward an economic recession in the near future.

"We need to keep businesses here to keep our economy up," Smith said.

Although Southern California is in a better position than Northern California and the rest of the country in terms of jobs, according to Ping Chang, senior regional planner for the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) in Los Angeles, 25 percent of higher-paying jobs in the area have been lost since the 1990s. SCAG promotes economic development in the region.

"We have lost jobs in manufacturing, aerospace and defense and they haven’t been fully replaced by other types of jobs," Chang said.

He agreed with the poll’s findings that higher-paid residents, whose incomes exceed $80,000, felt the economy was healthy.

"We see divergent opinions depending on where one is at financially," Chang said.

U.S. Census Study

On Population Growth

A recent U.S. census study estimates that California will grow by 12.5 million residents over the next 30 years to remain the most populous state and that local governments will have difficulty maintaining infrastructure in light of state budget cuts.

The population increase will come from a combination of current residents having children; an influx of legal and illegal migration; and older people from other parts of the country, including those who can afford coastal California and those who cannot, according to Maxey.

"We can’t stop the growth," Maxey said. "There’s much more awareness among cities of the need to plan but whether we have a sustaining plan remains to be seen."

The city of Simi Valley has a plan, according to Assistant City Manager Brian Gabler. One example is the city’s water treatment plant, built with the capacity to handle a significant growth in residents.

"The state of California, in their financial dilemma, finds itself not investing in infrastructure as they have in past years," Gabler said. "Hundreds of cities will have some catching up to do."

In order to overcome anticipated problems as a result of the population growth, cities will have to work together, according to Wartik.

"We are part of a global economy and we’re suffering in part because of issues going on around us," he said.

Local streets are being overwhelmed by motorists getting off congested freeways to use local routes to get to jobs outside of the city.

The city is working to come up with ways to keep tax dollars at home in order to pay for needs not covered by the state. A "Buy Local" campaign to encourage residents to shop in local stores is in the works, and the recent formation of the Thousand Oaks Boulevard Business Improvement District is planning to revitalize a portion of the Boulevard.

"There’s a lot of dialogue going on now between cities and through organizations like the county Economic Development Collaborative," Wartik said.